By Gaurav Agrawal
December 13 – In the beginning, there was nothing. Then came the Big
Bang. Don’t worry, I don’t intend to go that far back. In the
beginning, there was nothing. Then came the 9/11. Please forgive this
observation as it is not meant to be offensive. I, by all means,
sympathize with the victims of that horror and their families and
condemn such an act in strongest possible way. But this article is not
to discuss that event. I mention it merely to emphasize the Big Bang-ish
kind of impact it had on the geopolitik of South Asia region. (Asia
Times)
A death is a death and a tragedy. Those people lost their lives that
day, tomorrow you and I could lose ours. But it is still its equally
true that a death may serve or may harm the interests of those
surviving.
In the pre-9/11 world Afghanistan was dominated by powers that were
working in close collaboration with and to a large extent under control
of the Pakistani army. US and other Western powers had no real interest
in it except that the hardliners who ran it and the often troubled
region provided them a good market for their weapons.
What they did with these weapons was not something US or others were
really interested in. To Pakistan, Afghanistan was like the abandoned
land lying beyond its backyard that it easily encroached upon by
propelling the hardliner Islamists to the power.
To India, Afghanistan was a lost battle – a situation so beyond mending
that they had resigned and taught their people that India had no real
interest in Afghanistan. This may perhaps have been true in the politics
of that time.
Then 9/11 happened. US and the West got wedded to Afghanistan. One
cannot deliberate on the merits or demerits of the action, simply
emphasize this was the worst kind of marriage one can have in
international politics. It lacked pragmatism and was driven more by
personal considerations. With the wedding came the dowry of sorts, the
Pakistani army and its intimate relations with the terror groups that
the US and the West sought to eliminate.
A war began and, of course, India offered the lip services, but then it
was not really their war and India had worse things to worry about.
Fast forward to the present. Osama bin Laden has been killed, Taliban
weakened, but not decisively defeated. US and their allies after having
suffered heavy casualties and costs have announced a pullout by 2014.
International conferences are being organized around the world to find
the “solution”. Let us re-examine the interests and positions of the
various stakeholders involved in the war now.
The United States and the West have been able to save face after killing
Osama and some other top radical militants. Yet costs are running high,
so the US and the West are looking for an exit. But they don’t want to
look irresponsible in front of the eyes of the world and their own
people. That is why they are trying to create a semblance of some type
of an orderly withdrawal.
Afghans, who have endlessly suffered over the last ten years, it is
them. Today, they stand weaker than they were in 2001, the rivers are
red with blood and fields are laden with even more mines. Despite the
current presence of the US and Western troops and a government which has
lasted for many years, Afghanistan still bleeds every day.
Perhaps the only thing worth guessing in a post-US and Western
withdrawal scenario is how many days will it take for the Taliban
mercenaries to come down from the hills and reoccupy Kabul and Kandahar.
The Pakistani army may be viewed as victorious from this conflict. The
real power Pakistan held over Afghanistan and in the entire “war on
terror” was its command over the very terrorist groups which it was now
supposed to eliminate. If these groups were really eliminated, what
position of significance would have been left for Pakistan? Its golden
goose would be lost. The US and West surely from the beginning were not
naive enough to really believe that Pakistan would kill its golden
goose. Yet they threw money at Pakistan to secure its help in the “war
on terror”.
This brings us to an interesting inference. Was the so called “war on
terror” merely a farce borne out of domestic compulsions of George W
Bush? Maybe he saw in it an opportunity to secure his re-election?
Pakistan’s cooperation may have been merely “rented” for a few years
until the situation became conducive enough for US and West to walk out.
It increasingly appears that no one was ever really interested in either
weeding out terrorism or protecting the Afghan people. Philosophy and
moralities have no place in politics anyway.
Bush did in fact get re-elected and President Barack Obama made sure
this will not adversely impact his re-election chances. Musharraf and
the Qayani strengthened their hold in their internal politics and still
retain Afghanistan. Afghanistan still bleeds and the Taliban may merely
be in hibernation and waiting for the day to come back.
No one still seems to care for the Afghan people. The only that may help
them is that Obama must look “responsible” when pulling out. This may be
perhaps that’s why the pull out date is in 2014 after the elections so
that any consequences of the pullout are seen only in the next term of
the Us presidency.
India seems to have pretended this war was never ours and Afghanistan
didn’t matter to them. However they may have got it very wrong. If there
is one entity on earth that has got this war so wrong, it may be India.
This was India’s war and it was always their war. They had so much to
gain from it. Such as the immense utility of a pro-India Afghanistan
staring at Pakistan from its other side. it would be a real nightmare
for Qayani.
Rarely does a situation like this present itself to a nation. The entire
international community wanted so badly to remove the shadow-Pakistani
government in Afghanistan. There was an armed intervention and it
succeeded in removing them.
Meanwhile India slept, when they could have sent their soldiers in and
gained influence on the negotiating tables. The worst scenario for India
now would be when the Hamid Karzai regime is unable to stall a return of
the pro-Pakistani Taliban elements to power in Afghanistan.
If history is a guide, the US and other Western powers would care little
about and will not be there to save the day. Presenting a problem that
India is quite familiar with.
India now needs to make Karzai and his men strong enough to resist
successfully the impending Taliban onslaught which will have the full
backing of the Pakistani army. For India the war is not lost yet and
there may still be time.
India may have finally recognized these facts and the importance to act,
but only time will tell. For example, the security pact signed with
Karzai this year should have come a few years earlier and by now the
Indo-Karzai cooperation should have attained meaningful form.
Now the clock is ticking, and the Taliban are waiting.
– Gaurav Agrawal holds a MBA in Finance from Indian Institute of
Management and has worked in the Credit Derivatives trading in Hong
Kong.
—
Marjolaine Greentree
marjolainegreentree@fastmail.fm
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