April 24 – Interview with Alexander Goltz, a military analyst and Deputy
Editor of the website Daily Journal. (Voice of Russia)
NATO’s mission in Afghanistan is often described as a failure. NATO has
not eliminated the Taliban and stabilized Karzai’s government enough to
ensure that it could maintain internal security on its own. How would
you describe the situation in Afghanistan at present? How would you see
it developing?
I think that you are more or less right, describing this situation. It
is absolutely clear, that NATO and American troops have very limited
control over Afghan territory; and there is no doubt that in case of
withdraw Taliban will return to the region where it was.
Hundreds of civilians are killed annually in Afghanistan by air strikes
and artillery fire, targeting Taliban militants. At least 440 civilian
deaths were attributed to the US-led coalition last year, down 26% from
the previous year, according to a UN report. Do you believe that the
international coalition’s efforts are positive for Afghanistan?
Let us not forget that the United States and NATO began their operation
after September 11 and after Taliban government strongly rejected to
cooperate in any actions against al-Qaeda. There is no doubt that Afghan
people share the responsibility, because they gave safe shelter to
al-Qaeda. The next question is the operation successful or not. Of
course, every victim among civil population gave more opportunities to
al-Qaeda network than to NATO and those people, who are connected with
it; I mean the existent Afghan government. It is a very difficult
question, because there is no example in recent history, when civilized
nation or coalition of civilized nations can win guerilla war.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin believes that the United States will
succeed in Afghanistan. But as we know in 1979 the Soviet Union deployed
troops to the same Central Asian country, but had to withdraw them in 10
years without visible improvement. What can you say about this?
If NATO and the American troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan in
2014, as they stated, it will be a total and absolute strategic
nightmare for Russia, because, and for me it is no doubt, extreme Islam
will drop upon Amu Darya in terms of few months; and in this case we
will have a huge public unrest in Central Asia, in former Soviet
republics, where there are weak authoritarian regimes and level of
poverty is unbelievable. So, in worst case scenario, by 2015 Russia will
have thousands if not hundreds of thousands refugees in the region of
Kazakh-Russian border. This border is longer than Russian-Chinese
border, but it exists only on paper; there are no detachments to control
it. I am happy, when Mr Putin believes in success of NATO coalition; it
will be much better, and if personally being President of Russian
Federation, not to put obstacles for this coalition. In 2007 it was Mr
Putin, who insisted on meeting with the Kyrgyz president to close the
base at Manas.
Despite the consolidated efforts by the Afghan government and
international coalition troops the Taliban continues to stage regular
attacks on provincial government officials, police and civilians and
plant roadside bombs, targeting Afghan, US and NATO troops. However, US
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Thursday that Taliban might be
driven out of Afghanistan by the end of 2011. Can we expect the
improvement of the situation this year?
May be Mr Gates knows something, which I do not know, but it is
absolutely clear that there is no improvement in the situation until
now, and I can hardly expect it will happen in the next few years. All
historical experience, beginning from the attempt to organize war in
Vietnam, and then Soviet attempt to organize war in Afghanistan, failed.
I cannot see anything that will help NATO to withdraw without Taliban
take over.
Some experts believe, it would be easier to start a new Afghan war than
to integrate Taliban into peaceful life in Afghanistan under the current
year strategy and Hamid Karzai’s government. Do you share this view?
It is absolutely clear that civilized nations cannot win guerilla war;
it is some kind of axiom. In this case it is more or less useless to
start new Afghan war. The question is how to deal with countries, which
cannot control their territories, which permit terrorist organizations
to operate on their territories. Do civilized nations need, in case of
self-defence, to occupy their territories and try to civilize their
countries (for me, these attempts are useless); or we should find
another method just to isolate them?—
Marjolaine Greentree
marjolainegreentree@fastmail.fm
After reading the article please share your thoughts in the comment section below.