David Dayen: Breaking the Vicious Circle of Oil
Oil production is static, if not falling, and emerging markets are increasing and broadening their wealth, leading more and more Chinese and Indians and Indonesians and Brazilians to desire a higher standard of living. Invariably this means oil demand goes up. Therefore, when global GDP growth increases, demand for oil and then the price of oil increases. And around the world, but especially in a country like ours that’s extremely dependent on oil, this creates a price shock and a reduction in growth .. So we’re in a constant cycle of low growth and stable oil prices, followed by higher growth and oil shocks, which knocks the economy back to lower growth [i.e. the “bumpy plateau”] .. there simply isn’t enough oil available outside of what’s already being produced to meaningfully change this dynamic .. The only option is to end the oil economy. That means curtailing suburban sprawl that spews all kinds of toxicity into the atmosphere. It means embracing mass transit and bike lanes and intercity rail and other eco-friendly means of transporting ourselves. It means supporting the new high fuel-efficiency standards for a newly resurgent auto industry, including the rapid deployment of electric cars with innovative battery technology. It means innovating our way out of fossil fuel dependence through renewable energy, and funding as much research as possible to get us there
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