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This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 at 10:22 AM and filed under Articles, Politics. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.

2 Responses to “NYT Op-Ed (Brooks): The Long Defeat”

1. Ian Alterman said:

   Unfortunately, the numbers do not agree with the assessment of Brooks and other pundits.

   In fact, if you look at the remaining six primaries, Hillary could catch up – and even possibly have a minimally HIGHER number of delegates than Obama by the time of the August convention. And even if she did not have more delegates, she could definitely end up with a larger popular vote total.

   The following are the remaining primaries, the number of delegates apportionable for each, and the most current polls in those states (with Hillary’s poll number coming first). Note finally that Obama has been steadily LOSING ground in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and West Virginia.

   Pennsyvlania: 188 delegates. 56%/40%. An almost certain win for Hillary. And, again, Obama continues to lose ground here.

   Indiana: 84 delegates. 25%/40%. An almost certain win for Obama.

   North Carolina: 134 delegates. 43%/44%. Obama is currently ahead by a single percentage point, but this represents a significant downturn from two months ago, when he was ahead by 7-10 points – and, again, he continues to lose ground here. This is going to be the biggest remaining true “battleground” state.

   West Virginia: 39 delegates. 37%/22%. An almost certain win for Hillary, although for some reason Obama is battling fiercely for this state, despite its minimal number of delegates.

   Kentucky: 60 delegates. No polls available. My understanding is that they are fairly close here.

   Oregon: 65 delegates. 36%/28%. A close race here.

   Depending on the actual final numbers, Hillary would not even need a blow-out in Pennsylvania to obtain enough delegates to tie, and possibly even edge out, Obama. By my calculations – with a scenario based on the poll numbers above (and splitting the Kentucky delegates 50-50), and assuming no changes in the current status of the quasi-pledged superdelegates – Hillary could end up with a total of 1850 delegates to Obama’s 1822. And even if we “downgrade” my calculations a bit – allowing for minimal “surges” by Obama in one or two states – Hillary and Obama could still end up tied, or far closer than they are now, with as few as 25 delegates separating them.

   And, again, even if Obama IS ahead in total delegates after the remaining primaries, Hillary could easily be ahead of him in popular vote. In fact, if we include the popular vote in Florida (where both of their names were on the ballot) – even completely discounting Michigan, as well as the Florida delegates – Hillary is currently less than 350,000 votes behind Obama. Indeed, re the popular vote, a little over 30 million people have voted thus far, with Obama carrying 15.6 million, and Hillary 14.8 million. That is a difference of about 700,000 votes, or about 3%. This hardly suggests that Obama is so far ahead that he will have the higher popular vote total by August.

   As well, as Evan Bayh pointed out yesterday, another aspect that the superdelegates are likely to consider is who has won more potential electoral college votes, since these are what truly determines who wins the general election. As Bayh points out, Hillary has thus far won states representing 219 electoral college votes, while Obama has won states representing 202. Keep in mind that 270 are needed to win, and that if Hillary wins Pennsylvania (which she is expected to do), this will increase her potential total significantly.

   Finally, the Obama camp has suggested that the superdelegates should vote for the candidate who has the higher number of delegates or popular vote total in their respective states, thus honoring the “will of the people.” Although the superdelegates will (rightly) be considering other factors as well, let us assume for a moment that they honor Obama’s wish, and pledge solely based on delegates and/or popular vote. The irony here is that Obama would actually LOSE the nomination: the states that Hillary has won represent 346 superdelegates, while the states that Obama has won represent 309 superdelegates. And this does not include the superdelegates from Pennsylvania (which Hillary is likely to win), which would put her even further ahead of Obama.

   Thus, those who suggest that Hillary should simply fold her tent and pack it in are being a tad premature – to say nothing of overly optimistic about Obama’s chances.

   Peace.

   Posted on 25-Mar-08 at 10:27 am | Permalink
2. ben stagg said:

   Confused? Well I am now!
   As the song says, ‘Keep cool, lil’e Jaguar – hold on, Thunderbird 4!’

   Posted on 25-Mar-08 at 11:30 am | Permalink