[Mb-civic] Old Forecasts Come Back to Haunt Bush - Washington Post

[William Swiggard]

Old Forecasts Come Back to Haunt Bush
Erosion in Confidence Will Be Hard To Reverse, Say Pollsters, Strategists

By Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, March 21, 2006; A14

Three years of upbeat White House assessments about Iraq that turned out 
to be premature, incomplete or plain wrong are complicating President 
Bush's efforts to restore public faith in the military operation and his 
presidency, according to pollsters and Republican lawmakers and strategists.

The last two weeks have provided a snapshot of White House optimism that 
skeptics contend is at odds with the facts on the ground in Iraq.

Vice President Cheney said Sunday that his 10-month-old claim that the 
insurgency was in its "last throes" was "basically accurate" and 
reflects reality. Since Cheney's original comment, on at least 70 days 
there have been violent attacks that in each instance killed more than 
10 people. Two weeks ago, Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs 
of Staff, said the United States is making "very, very good progress" -- 
less than 48 hours before the U.S ambassador warned of a possible civil 
war breaking out. And Bush yesterday said his optimism flows in part 
from success in Tall Afar, a city in northern Iraq, though local 
residents there said sectarian violence is spreading.

Pollsters and some congressional Republicans said the administration's 
sunny-side-up appraisals, instead of lifting the public mood, may now 
complicate the task of sustaining support for a long-term military 
commitment in Iraq. The loss of trust, they said, is affecting Bush's 
presidency more broadly, as polls show his public support at a nadir.

Rep. Heather A. Wilson (R-N.M.) said in an interview that Cheney was 
wrong about the insurgency being in its last throes and that she sent 
word to the White House recently to level with the American people about 
the challenges. "We need to assume that things are going to be very hard 
because when you do, you plan accordingly," said Wilson. "I am always 
cautious about always seeing things in the best light because war is not 
like that" and the public knows it.

Michael Dimock, associate director of the nonpartisan Pew Research 
Center for the People and the Press, said a recent survey by his group 
showed the public skeptical toward Bush, about both his administrative 
competency and his personal credibility. Only 40 percent of respondents 
said Bush was trustworthy, a 22-point drop from September of 2003, six 
months after the invasion of Iraq.

Dimock said the cumulative effect of the past three years has made 
Bush's public-relations challenge imposing, and perhaps impossible. 
"When you give a speech and try to persuade people that they are only 
hearing the bad and things are going better than the media is saying, if 
a majority of people say they do not find you trustworthy, it is hard to 
be persuasive," he said.

Frank Newport of the nonpartisan Gallup polling organization said White 
House efforts to turn around public opinion are complicated now because 
Bush is waging the wrong argument. His polling shows a majority of 
Americans agree with Bush that troops should not be pulled out 
immediately and that Iraq is better off now and will be in the future as 
a result of the invasion, two points the president made yesterday. Yet 6 
out of 10 said the war was not worth it because, Newport said, the 
public does not see an upside for the United States. "The focus for 
Americans is Americans," he said.

Newport, whose survey found a 26-point drop in the number of people who 
find Bush trustworthy since the 2003 invasion, said Bush can restore his 
standing on Iraq, on his credibility and on other issues by improving 
his overall popularity -- a feat past slumping second-term presidents 
have found difficult to pull off. The erosion in the public's support 
for Bush at a personal level is a striking reversal for a president who 
for most of his first term was described by the public as a strong and 
trustworthy leader, especially on national security measures.

This erosion in trust is not a new phenomenon for a wartime president. 
Lyndon B. Johnson's upbeat appraisals of progress in the Vietnam War 
proved wrong so often that by 1967 commentators spoke of his 
"credibility gap" with the public, a liability that soon helped push him 
out of office.

In recent months, Bush has moved to talk more candidly about the 
problems in Iraq and yesterday said repeatedly that he understood the 
public's concerns. But it has not stopped his slide in the polls.

There also has been a steady drumbeat of criticism -- from Democrats in 
particular -- that the administration should have been more forthright 
about the war and its cost from the outset. There were the famous claims 
by Cheney and others that U.S. troops would be greeted as liberators 
after the invasion. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), a strong supporter of 
the war, said that was true -- to a point. "The same people who cheer 
when you get rid of someone they hate might not be so happy" when you 
occupy their country for three-plus years, he said.

Other statements were proved wrong. The weapons of mass destruction the 
administration said Saddam Hussein possessed before the war have never 
been found -- and many experts believe never existed. White House 
officials hammered then-chief economic adviser Lawrence B. Lindsey for 
claiming the war could cost as little as $100 billion, saying the 
estimate was too high. The actual tally is fast approaching four times 
that amount, according to the Congressional Research Service, which 
estimates a $360 billion price tag to date.

Perhaps the most famous rosy statement came nearly three years ago when 
Bush proclaimed: "We have seen the turning of the tide" under a banner 
that read "Mission Accomplished." Since then, more than 2,300 Americans 
have died in Iraq.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/20/AR2006032000341.html
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