[Mb-civic] The looming chaos in Chad - Eric Reeves - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

  The looming chaos in Chad

By Eric Reeves  |  April 26, 2006  |  The Boston Globe

IDRISS DEBY, the president of the central African country of Chad, may 
soon lose power to a group of variously motivated rebel movements. The 
deposing of Deby might not seem occasion for much regret: he is a cruel, 
tyrannical, and corrupt man who has squandered a great deal of Chad's 
new-found oil wealth. But the rebels who would replace him have the 
deeply troubling support of the genocidal regime in Khartoum, Sudan. In 
recent months, as Human Rights Watch has authoritatively reported, the 
National Islamic Front in Khartoum has supported the Chadian rebels, 
even as it has loosed its own murderous Arab militia allies on the 
non-Arab tribal populations of eastern Chad. Indeed, Human Rights Watch 
reports that ''the Janjaweed militias have carried out attacks inside 
Chad accompanied by Sudanese army troops with helicopter gunship support."

Chad's capital, N'Djamena, is far to the west of the Chad/Sudan border; 
but as Deby has begun to feel more threatened, he has redeployed his 
military forces westward and into major garrisons in a desperate bid to 
retain power. In fact, N'Djamena itself was attacked by the rebels on 
April 13, and though the assault was repelled, military assets will be 
increasingly concentrated in the capital and larger towns. This is bad 
news not only for the Chadian civilians in the east, who now have almost 
no protection, but for the quarter-million Darfuri refugees who are 
increasingly threatened in camps up and down the very long Chad/Sudan 
border. Aid organizations have already begun to withdraw from some 
refugee camps, and after the April 13 attack, the UN's World Food 
Program (the lead UN logistical organization in Chad) ordered the 
evacuation of all non-essential personnel from N'Djamena. Humanitarian 
access and security in eastern Chad continue to deteriorate badly as 
Khartoum turns the region into an extension of the Darfur killing fields.

And things will soon get worse. Heavy seasonal rains begin in late May 
or June, and these will sever the key east-west road arteries in Chad 
(as they do in Darfur). It will become impossible for humanitarian 
supplies to move overland. Moreover, a new government -- beholden to 
Khartoum -- may decide to obstruct humanitarian aid in the same way that 
Khartoum has in Darfur. Even air drops of food and medical supplies 
could be hindered.

This may in the end have more to do with the chaos that will ensue if 
Khartoum succeeds in its effort to topple Deby. There is little evidence 
of common cause among the various rebel groups fighting under the vague 
umbrella of the ''United Front for Change." The end of Deby's rule is 
likely to usher in a period of infighting and chaos. Neighboring 
Cameroon and the Central African Republic may also be destabilized.

None of this much matters to the genocidaires in Khartoum, who perceive 
Deby simply as a supporter of the Darfuri insurgency movements, which 
have two particularly prominent Zaghawa leaders. Deby is also a member 
of the non-Arab (or ''African") Zaghawa tribe, which is found on both 
sides of the border, and he has traditionally drawn a good deal of 
political and military support from his fellow tribesmen. But while Deby 
has certainly supported the Darfuri insurgents, most Zaghawa fault Deby 
for not doing nearly enough to serve their cause in Darfur.

At this point in the crisis, however, it is fruitless for the 
international community to apportion blame. Humanitarian needs must be 
addressed, and anticipated, in the most urgent fashion. Plans must be 
made for the continuation of humanitarian assistance to the many 
hundreds of thousands of desperate civilians in eastern Chad who are 
faced with the total loss of protection and humanitarian access. Under 
international pressure, Deby has backed down from his threat to expel 
from Chad the large Darfuri refugee population; he must be told 
forcefully any further such threats will diminish his support within the 
international community. The UN, which has dithered unconscionably in 
providing security for humanitarians in Darfur, must begin emergency 
planning for a UN peacekeeping deployment to eastern Chad. Part of its 
mandate must be to staunch the flow of genocidal destruction from Darfur 
into Chad.

All this will be only a short-term solution; the crises in Chad and 
Darfur are inextricably linked. If the world wishes to end genocide in 
Darfur, and prevent massive human destruction in eastern Chad, it must 
exert immediate, concerted, and substantial pressure on Khartoum.

Eric Reeves is a professor at Smith College.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/04/26/the_looming_chaos_in_chad/
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