Nate Silver: Gallup vs. the World
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney [of] seven points .. The Gallup poll[‘s] results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race .. Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly. You do not need to look any further than Gallup’s track record.. to find a demonstration of this .. in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie .. After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters.. no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead
Gallup has consistently had Romney overperforming this election / has been mirroring the GOP polling outfit Rasmussen. Along w news that Mitt owns the voting machine company in Ohio, makes you wonder if its time to go to war w Iran + get their oil – mab .. read more
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