MB Civic

Go to Article (click)

Here’s a couple question and answers…

AMY GOODMAN: We’re joined now by the book’s author, Dilip Hiro, veteran journalist in the Middle East. His trilogy of books on Iraq and Iran are considered some of the most definitive histories of the wars in the Persian Gulf. Welcome to Democracy Now! How did oil become so central?

DILIP HIRO: I think oil became important when the internal combustion engine was fueled by petroleum. See, in 1905 that happened. Before that, you could fuel internal combustion engine with electricity or with steam. You know, but then oil proved to be the most important. And then, 1905, Henry Ford, his mass production of cars, that really made the whole thing go up.

And in terms of warfare, it was during World War I that in the tank, internal combustion engine was fueled by petroleum products. And that made the whole technology, certainly of war, change in the way like the first finding of gun powder in 1041. Because, see, as a general you could now — see, before that, they had to depend on horses, cavalry, and the horses had to be fed, they had to rest and so on. But once you had a tank, you could go 30, 40 miles in a day. And that changed the whole way the war was fought. So oil is very important…

AMY GOODMAN: Dilip Hiro, very briefly, if you can talk about the centrality of oil in China and India?

DILIP HIRO: Absolutely, you see, India and China are not just two nations. They are mega-nations. Between the two of them, they have 40% of world population. Two out of five human beings are Indians and Chinese. Now, in China —

AMY GOODMAN: Two out of five —

DILIP HIRO: — human beings are either Indian or Chinese. So it’s not simply two nations. You know, it’s 2.4 billion people. Last year, China’s oil consumption went up by 15%. That means they’re doubling oil consumption every five years, quadrupling it every ten years. And, you know, India, of course, 8%. And what kind of a potential exists?

I’ll give you a very quick figure. In the USA, there are 800 vehicles — passenger cars, buses, minivans, etc., etc. — for 1,000 American men, women and children. In India, there are eight vehicles for 1,000 Indians, men, women and children. Now, suppose India progresses economically, and you change that figure from 8 to 18 or 80, can you imagine how much oil will be required? And that is something which one has to face up to. And as I show, you know, there’s what you call, you know, oil, any mineral, you have a bell curve, and peak will reach in ten years time, and then you start to go down. And at that time, India and China, the demand will rise. So what will happen? The price of oil will go up to — take a deep breath — $200 a barrel.

Definitely worthwhile to go read the whole interview.
-MAB

Democracy Now is a news show on public radio and public access TV. To find out how to watch or listen to Democracy Now where you live go to this link. You can also stream audio and video over the Internet at this link.