MB Civic

By Scot Lehigh | May 12, 2006 | The Boston GlobeLAST JUNE, I heard astute political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg tell an audience at Colby College that an electoral wave was starting to build for Democrats — a wave that could carry the party to big congressional gains in the 2006 midterm election.

Now everyone has spotted what Stuart spied early on. What does Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, currently see ahead? ”I think there is a very good chance that the country will wake up on the day after the election and find out that the Democrats have control over one chamber” of Congress, he says.

Their best opportunity, obviously, is the House, where taking charge will require a net gain of 15 seats.

That’s easily achievable in a political environment where, Rothenberg estimates, 30 to 50 seats are in play.

As for the Senate, where the Democrats would need a net gain of six seats? Winning control will be much harder, particularly since the Democrats are defending more seats than the Republicans. Rothenberg judges a pick-up of three or four more likely.

”Even if they fall short in the House, they are going to have significant gains in both chambers,” he says.

That’s the good news for Democrats. But here’s the qualifier: Any gains will be far less an affirmative vote for the out party than a resounding rejection of the Republicans.

The Democrats, after all, have hardly presented an affirmative national agenda.

Rather, the nation is reacting to Republican excess, overreach, and scandal. You can see that in polling numbers showing strong dissatisfaction with the performance of President Bush and the Republican-led Congress, and in a pervasive feeling that the country is on the wrong track.

It is also apparent in a pronounced desire for divided government. A new New York Times/CBS News poll finds that by 49 percent to 29 percent, those surveyed favored having the party that doesn’t occupy the White House control Congress.

”It is not like the Democrats have an agenda or message that the public has decided is more appealing,” notes Rothenberg. ”It is that anything is better than what they have got at the moment.”

Last May, when I wrote that Bush had squandered his second-term momentum long before lame duckdom would normally loom, the president’s approval rating had sagged to the low to mid-40s in some polls.

And now? According to the New York Times/CBS News poll, only 31 percent of Americans approve of Bush’s performance as president, with 63 percent disapproving. A CNN poll released this week finds the president’s disapproval rate at 58 percent, with only 34 percent approving.

And the next two years promise to get even rockier.

”Given the White House’s difficulty in operating in the current environment, a narrow Republican majority or a Democratic majority in the House would almost certainly guarantee gridlock,” Rothenberg says. ”If the Republicans couldn’t get much done with 55 seats in the Senate and a pretty big House majority, I think the country can’t expect them to do very much with the kind of line-ups” likely in Congress come 2007.

It’s not impossible, of course. But the administration’s recent shakeup certainly isn’t going to do the trick. To regain any traction, the president would have to govern in a much more bipartisan fashion. That would mean both reinventing himself and reversing policies he has staked his reputation on.

In other words, don’t hold your breath.

As for the Democrats, in this session they’ve fared well as a party that has presented a united front in opposition to ill-advised Republican ideas like partially privatizing Social Security. Playing defense, however, has papered over differences that will start to emerge if and when the party takes over the House. Questions loom.

Can the party forge a consensus position on Iraq?

Are Democrats still sold on the moderate approach of the Clinton era? Or is that a paradigm lost, and will the party embrace the more liberal — and overtly partisan — politics of, say, Howard Dean or Russell Feingold?

Will their principal focus be on advancing a domestic agenda of their own — or will it be on investigating the excesses of the Bush administration?

The debate over what the Democrats should do is already simmering among party activists and idea merchants. If Rothenberg is right about the fall elections, it won’t be long before it is joined in full.