[Mb-hair] Mr. Nasty, Brutish and Short-Tempered By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

[Michael Butler]

The New York Times
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March 10, 2006
Op-Ed Columnist
Mr. Nasty, Brutish and Short-Tempered
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

I have a job for Dick Cheney.

No, no, really. This is not another hunting joke. It's serious: Iraq is
drifting aimlessly, if not toward civil war then toward a violent political
stalemate. If Iraqis can't produce a minimally effective national unity
government now, America can look forward to baby-sitting this violent
stalemate far into the future.

If we want to avoid that, it's time for some dramatic new thinking and
acting. To put it in a nutshell: It is not time for the U.S. to leave Iraq,
but it is time for the U.S. to start threatening to leave Iraq.

When Iraq was just violent, but the political situation seemed to be
stumbling forward, it was possible to believe that a decent outcome could
still be achieved. But when Iraq is increasingly violent, with ethnic and
religious rivals murdering one another and the politicians squabbling
endlessly, there is no reason for optimism. U.S. forces in Iraq can't be
held hostage by the notion that Iraqis may have a civil war if we leave.
They are already having a little civil war, and if they are determined to
have a big civil war, I prefer that they have it without us. But we need to
make one last big push to find an alternative.

The Bush team needs to stop telling itself that the news media are not
reporting the good news in Iraq. That's utter nonsense. And it needs to stop
acting like a spectator as events there unfold, with the secretaries of
state and defense making one-day stopovers and then disappearing. It is time
for this administration to start taking responsibility for the outcome of
this war, and not just dump it all on the military.

There is no military solution. There is only a political solution, and it
will require some big-time diplomacy to pull off.

We need to bring together all the newly elected Iraqi leaders for a national
reconciliation conference ‹ outside Baghdad. We should lock them in a room
and not let them out until they either produce a national unity government,
so Americans will want to stay in Iraq, or fail to produce that government,
which would signal that it's time to warm up the bus.

Those choices need to be put to the Iraqis in the most frank, tough-minded
way by the most nasty, brutish and short-tempered senior official we've got
‹ and that is Dick "Darth Vader" Cheney. Mr. Veep, this Bud's for you.

Richard Holbrooke masterfully played this role in bringing an end to the
Bosnian civil war at the Dayton peace conference, and maybe Mr. Cheney could
do the same for Iraq, with the help of our very skilled ambassador in
Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad. We need an Iraqi Dayton ‹ now. And we need a
really bad dude to make it work.

Mr. Cheney could open the meeting with his low growl by telling the Sunnis:
"Look, you guys don't want to compromise, fine. Then we'll just leave you to
the tender mercies of the Shiites, who vastly outnumber you."

To the Shiites: "You want to rule Iraq and control the oil without real
regard to the Sunnis? Well, you're going to rule over nothing but a boiling
pot, unless you compromise."

And to the Kurds he could say: "You've behaved most responsibly. Stick with
it. If Iraq falls apart, we will make sure you're taken care of. We won't
ignore the fact that you've built an impressively decent, democratizing
society in your region."

After getting their attention, Mr. Cheney could start cracking heads on the
key issues:

First, the Shiite alliance has to come up with a new candidate for prime
minister, acceptable to all parties.

Second, the constitution has to be revised so the Sunnis do not feel that
the Kurds and Shiites are breaking off their own chunks of Iraq, along with
their oil resources.

Third, the Sunnis need to produce a credible plan for ending their
insurgency.

Fourth, the parties have to agree on an inner cabinet, with ministers from
each community, which will make all key decisions in coordination with the
new prime minister.

Fifth, this inner cabinet has to draw up a plan for governing Iraq from the
center ‹ and not from any one faction.

Mr. Cheney could then conclude: "Read my lips ‹ these are the minimum
requirements for a decent government in Iraq. If Iraqis step up, Americans
will want to stick it out. If Iraqis won't step up, Americans will want to
step out. The American people are ready to midwife your democracy, but not
to baby-sit your civil war."

Mr. Cheney, this is your Kodak moment. Iraqis are notoriously difficult and
fractious. You've got the time and the mean streak to deal with them.
They'll get serious if you're in the room. But just in case, bring along
your shotgun. This is a good job for someone with bad aim.

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