[Mb-civic] The coming new wave of jihad - Rita Katz - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

  The coming new wave of jihad

By Rita Katz  |  March 13, 2006  |  The Boston Globe

WASHINGTON

ABU MUSAB AL-ZARQAWI has suddenly disappeared. As briskly as he has 
emerged, the Jordanian high school dropout who became the undisputed 
leader of the Iraqi insurgency has descended into obscurity. Where is 
the man who singlehandedly created from scratch a formidable guerrilla 
army in occupied Iraq and whom Osama bin Laden called the Emir of Al 
Qaeda in Iraq?

A year after it assumed the name Al Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers 
(Iraq), Zarqawi's group took a back seat. In an Internet message posted 
Jan. 15, Abu Maysara al-Iraqi, the group's spokesman, announced the 
establishment of the Mujahideen Shura Council in Iraq, an alliance of 
six Salafi jihadi groups created to lead the ''fight to face the 
infidels and their followers of the converters," unify the mujahideen as 
per Sharia [Islamic law], and ''clear the mist off people's eyes."

A few days after the council was established, Al Qaeda in Iraq ceased to 
post communiques. Abu Maysarah temporarily signed the new council's 
communiques, but then he, too, stopped. The baffled jihadi community 
initially believed that Zarqawi headed the new council. But on Jan. 20, 
the council posted a communique crowning its emir: Abdullah Rashid 
al-Baghdadi.

Why, then, did Zarqawi's group surrender its position and succumb to the 
integration? The answers may be found in a letter from Ayman al-Zawahri, 
Al Qaeda's second in command, to Zarqawi, from July 2005.

After congratulating Zarqawi for his jihad in Iraq, Zawahri described Al 
Qaeda's plans: ''The jihad in Iraq requires several incremental goals. 
The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq. The second stage: 
Establish an Islamic authority or emirate . . . a caliphate -- over as 
much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq, i.e., in Sunni 
areas. The third: Extend the jihad wave. . ."

The first stage is a result of the US invasion of Iraq. The second 
stage, it appears, is beginning. The establishment of the council may 
well be its opening bell. Zawahri also describes how and by whom the 
plan will unfold: ''Americans will exit soon, Allah willing, and the 
establishment of a governing authority . . . does not depend on force 
alone. Indeed, it's imperative that, in addition to force, there be an 
appeasement of Muslims and a sharing with them in governance and in the 
Shura [consulting] council and in promulgating what is allowed and what 
is not allowed . . . This must be achieved through the people of the 
Shura and who possess authority to determine issues and make them 
binding, and who are endowed with the qualifications for working in Sharia."

Therefore, to advance the plan, Iraqis must be in leadership positions; 
so must be their emir.

''And it does not appear that the mujahideen, much less Al Qaeda in the 
Land of the Two Rivers, will lay claim to governance without the Iraqi 
people. Not to mention that that would be in contravention of the Shura 
methodology . . ."

Thus Zawahri explained why Zarqawi must give up his position. He then 
addressed the timing of the changes: ''Things may develop faster than we 
imagine . . . we must be ready to start now, before events overtake us, 
and before we are surprised by the conspiracies of the Americans and the 
United Nations and their plans to fill the void behind them. We must 
take the initiative. . . . This is the most vital part. This authority, 
or the Sharia emirate that is necessary, requires fieldwork starting 
now, alongside combat and war."

Following these instructions, Zarqawi abdicated his position. He had not 
intended to remain in Iraq forever anyway; he used Iraq only as a 
springboard for his long-term goal -- establishment of a global caliphate.

Zarqawi said in a January 2005 audio message: ''The caliphate is the 
entrustment [of Allah] on Earth, the guidance of people to the path of 
Allah, and the implementation of His world in life. . . . This group has 
no other choice but to be patient and endure [the hardship of] the path 
it has followed, and consider with Allah, the leaders and members it has 
lost, and must follow their path; for Allah has chosen this Ummah 
[Muslim nation], therefore it must not be impatient, as victory is 
inevitable."

Toward that goal, attacks by Zarqawi's group have expanded beyond Iraq's 
borders. His group participated in the rocket attack on US Navy ships at 
the Jordanian port of Aqaba on Aug. 19, 2005, the rocket attack on the 
Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona on Dec. 27, 2005, and the suicide attack 
on Western hotels in Amman on Nov. 9, 2005. Thus, Zarqawi and his Al 
Qaeda in Iraq are not gone; they have simply moved to the next stage of 
their jihad against the West.

Rita Katz is director of the SITE Institute, an international 
terrorist-investigation and information group.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/03/13/the_coming_new_wave_of_jihad/
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