[Mb-civic] Russia's Shadow Empire - Ana Palacio, Daniel Twining - Washington Post Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

Russia's Shadow Empire

By Ana Palacio and Daniel Twining
The Washington Post
Saturday, March 11, 2006; A19

Since 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt 
strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the 
former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over 
their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its 
periphery linger.

Calls from the elected presidents of Georgia and Ukraine for a united 
Europe stretching "from the Atlantic to the Caspian" should embolden 
Europe and the United States to help people aspiring to freedom in other 
post-Soviet states end Russia's continuing dominion over them by rolling 
back the corrupting influence of Russian power in regions beyond its 
borders. This task is especially urgent in countries where Russian 
troops and political support sustain secessionist conflicts that 
threaten aspiring new democracies and the security of the West.

Since the Cold War ended, Russian leaders have built a shadow empire on 
the territories of Russia's sovereign neighbors, extending Russian power 
where it is unwarranted and unwelcome by sponsoring "frozen conflicts" 
in southeastern Europe and the South Caucasus. This behavior, designed 
to maintain political and economic influence beyond Russia's borders, 
impedes democratic development in states that aspire to join the West. 
It exports instability, criminality and insecurity into Europe. It 
threatens regional military conflict that could draw in the United 
States and other powers. It also bolsters anti-democratic forces within 
Russia who believe Russia's traditional approach of subverting its 
neighbors' independence is a surer path to security than the democratic 
peace enjoyed by the nations of Europe.

The frozen conflicts in the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and 
Abkhazia, and in the Moldovan territory of Transdniestria, share many 
characteristics. Russian troops fought on the side of local armies when 
these regions broke away from their mother countries as the Cold War 
ended. Russian officers continue to help train and command the breakaway 
territories' Russian-armed militias. The secessionist leaders are all 
Russian citizens, some sent directly from Moscow, who are maintained in 
power by the continuing presence of members of the Russian military and 
security services. Secessionist political leaders also enjoy the 
sponsorship of powerful criminal elites in Russia, which profit from the 
unregulated smuggling trade -- in consumer goods, drugs, weapons and 
women -- in the conflict zones.

Moscow has granted the people of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and 
Transdniestria Russian citizenship, including Russian passports and the 
right to vote in Russian elections. This effective annexation of 
sovereign peoples is expressly designed to undermine the authority of 
pro-Western governments in Georgia and Moldova.

Russian political and military influence also looms in the shadows of 
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Opposing 
armies that fought a bloody war over the disputed enclave in the 1990s 
now shoot at each other from trenches across a "no-man's land" more 
reminiscent of Flanders in 1916 than the European neighborhood in 2005. 
This barely frozen conflict threatens a hot war that would devastate the 
region.

It is also the place where a breakthrough is perhaps most likely. 
Western governments could support a settlement there in which Armenia 
returned to Azerbaijan the occupied provinces surrounding the disputed 
territory and allowed Azerbaijani refugees to resettle there. 
Nagorno-Karabakh could enjoy full autonomy until its ultimate status was 
decided by democratic referendum at some future date. In return for 
Azerbaijan's cooperation in ending a conflict that threatens its growing 
prosperity, the West should welcome closer partnership with that country 
as it moves forward with reform, end residual sanctions against 
Azerbaijan dating from the 1991-94 war, require closure of the Russian 
bases on Armenian territory that threaten Azerbaijan, offer a 
mini-Marshall Plan for the entire South Caucasus and put these countries 
on a path to Europe.

In South Ossetia, Europe and the United States should support Georgian 
calls to internationalize the Russian-dominated "peacekeeping" force, 
which now functions chiefly to obstruct changes to the secessionist 
status quo. The United States and the European Union should join 
Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia in a new negotiating framework 
designed to achieve a lasting political settlement consistent with 
international law.

In Abkhazia, the Atlantic democracies should push to transform the U.N. 
observer mission into an armed peacekeeping force, hold Russia to its 
1999 promise on troop withdrawal and pledge assistance to rehabilitate 
Abkhazia's war-torn economy as part of a federation agreement with 
Georgia. With the West, Ukraine can help bring change to neighboring 
Transdniestria by continuing its recent crackdown on cross-border 
smuggling, reinforcing Moldovan demands for a Russian military 
withdrawal and supporting a political settlement upholding Moldova's 
sovereignty and the democratic rights of all its people.

Russia holds the key to any resolution of the frozen conflicts, and the 
Western democracies are surely not powerless to foster a change of 
Russian behavior in Europe's back yard. President Vladimir Putin must 
understand that his country cannot enjoy partnership with the West -- 
including membership in the G-8 club of Western democracies and the 
chance to host their summits -- as long as his policies in the European 
neighborhood, and at home, look less like those of a modern European 
statesman than of a czar.

Ana Palacio is the former foreign minister of Spain. Daniel Twining is 
an Oxford-based consultant to the German Marshall Fund of the United 
States. These are their personal views.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/10/AR2006031001841.html?nav=hcmodule
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