[Mb-civic] Questions for Hamas - Shai Feldman - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

  Questions for Hamas

By Shai Feldman  |  January 31, 2006  |  The Boston Globe

HAMAS'S VICTORY in last week's elections to the Palestinian Legislative 
Council has produced more questions than answers. The first concerns the 
legitimate framework within which a Hamas-dominated Palestinian 
government will operate. The Palestinian Authority and its Legislative 
Council were created in the early 1990s as part of the Oslo agreement. 
The grand bargain included the Palestine Liberation Organization's 
commitment to end the armed struggle against Israel and accept an 
open-ended peace process. After Likud's victory in the 1996 elections, 
the new Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu assumed Israel's 
obligations under the Oslo accords although Likud had previously opposed 
these agreements. The question is: Will a Hamas-dominated Palestinian 
government do the same? If not, what would be its source of legitimacy?

Another question concerns the composition of the next Palestinian 
government: Would it be dominated by Hamas or will it have a much 
broader base, in the form of either a Hamas-Fatah ''national unity 
government" or a Hamas-technocrats coalition that would include 
non-Hamas members? The answer to this question is critical -- it will 
largely determine whether President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) would be 
able to continue serving as president and whether Israel, the United 
States, and the European Union will be able to deal with the new 
Palestinian government.

Other questions concern the odds of overcoming the state of anarchy in 
the West Bank and Gaza. Who will command the Palestinian Authority's 
security services, which were created by PLO leader Yasser Arafat and 
whose personnel is composed almost entirely of Fatah members and 
associates? In an attempt to streamline these services, they have been 
formally placed under the authority of the minister of internal 
security. But after Hamas's electoral victory, Abbas declared that he is 
placing them under his command. To whom will they answer?

And what will be the future role of Hamas's militants? Will outside 
pressures to disarm these militants lead, instead, to their 
incorporation within the PA's security services? Under the Oslo 
agreements, the PA's security services were to number up to 18,000. In 
recent years, Palestinian police and military personnel have reached 
about 58,000. If these numbers were to mushroom further by incorporating 
the approximately 5,000 Hamas militants into the services, how would the 
PA be able to pay the salaries of so many people? And if they don't, how 
would the PA avoid Iraq-like consequences of releasing thousands of men 
trained in the use of weapons to an economy suffering chronic 
unemployment? The answer to these more practical questions will probably 
be decided by the manner in which Hamas will resolve its internal debate 
regarding a more basic set of issues: First, should it make a modest and 
gradual attempt to incorporate its Islamic agenda and priorities within 
an emerging Palestinian state structure along the Turkish model? Or 
should it, instead, attempt to become itself the state structure, a la Iran?

Second, to whose needs should Hamas be more responsive: the population 
of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem or the movement's external 
supporters, primarily Iran? Sensitivity to the latter would probably 
mean an indefinite confrontation with Israel. Emphasis on the former 
would call for attempts to alleviate the plight of the suffering 
population, even if this requires coming to terms with ''the Zionist enemy."

Finally, how will Hamas leaders interpret the messages they will be 
receiving from their constituents during the coming weeks? Will they 
understand the message to be an endorsement of continued violent 
struggle against the Jewish state, or will they, instead, hear the 
population saying: We voted you in because we were fed up with Fatah's 
corruption, incompetence, and lawlessness. We were also proud of your 
brave resistance. But a majority of us are not religious fanatics and we 
want to get on with our lives. We want our dignity and independent 
statehood alongside Israel, but replacing the Jewish state is a costly, 
impractical dream. Our fledgling economy is dependent on Israel, the 
United States, and the donor community. You need to come to terms with 
the real world, even if implicitly and without ceremony.

Early indications are that Hamas leaders are hearing the voices calling 
them to adopt a pragmatic approach, to favor gradual change, and to give 
priority to alleviating the plight of the Palestinian population. Time 
will tell whether or not these leaders will be able to part with their 
orthodoxy and adapt to their new responsibilities.

Shai Feldman is director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at 
Brandeis University. 

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/01/31/questions_for_hamas/
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