[Mb-civic] The Realities of Exporting Democracy - Washington Post

[William Swiggard]

The Realities of Exporting Democracy
A Year After Bush Recast Foreign Policy, Progress Remains Mixed

By Peter Baker
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, January 25, 2006; A01

Sitting in a prison cell halfway around the planet, an Egyptian 
opposition leader forced President Bush this month to confront the 
question of how serious he was when he vowed to devote his second term 
to "ending tyranny in our world."

Ayman Nour, who dared challenge Egypt's authoritarian leader in 
manipulated elections, was sentenced on Christmas Eve to five years on 
what U.S. officials consider bogus charges. Inside the administration, a 
debate ensued over whether to shelve a new trade agreement with Egypt in 
protest. In the end, the trade talks were suspended and an Egyptian 
negotiating team invited to Washington last week was told it was no 
longer welcome.

In the year since Bush redefined U.S. foreign policy in his second 
inaugural address to make the spread of democracy the nation's primary 
mission, the clarion-call language has resonated in the dungeons and 
desolate corners of the world. But soaring rhetoric has often clashed 
with geopolitical reality and competing U.S. priorities.

While the administration has enjoyed notable success in promoting 
liberty in some places, it has applied the speech's principles 
inconsistently in others, according to analysts, activists, diplomats 
and officials. Beyond its focus on Iraq, Washington has stepped up 
pressure on repressive regimes in countries such as Belarus, Burma and 
Zimbabwe -- where the costs of a confrontation are minimal -- while 
still gingerly dealing with China, Pakistan, Russia and other countries 
with strategic and trade significance.

In the Middle East, where the administration has centered its attention, 
it has promoted elections in the Palestinian territories such as today's 
balloting for parliament, even as it directed money aimed at 
clandestinely preventing the radical Islamic group Hamas from winning. 
And although it has now suspended trade negotiations with Egypt, it did 
not publicly announce the move, nor has it cut the traditionally 
generous U.S. aid to Cairo.

"The glass is a quarter full, but we need more of it," said Jennifer 
Windsor, executive director of Freedom House, a group that promotes 
democracy. "The administration deserves credit, but it's just a start."

In its annual survey ranking nations as free, partly free or not free, 
the group upgraded nine nations or territories in 2005 and downgraded 
four. Among those deemed freer were Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, where 
peaceful revolutions overthrew entrenched governments; Lebanon, where 
Syrian occupation troops were pressured to withdraw; and Afghanistan and 
the Palestinian territories, where trailblazing elections were held. 
Overall, Freedom House concluded, "the past year was one of the most 
successful for freedom" since the survey began in 1972.

At the same time, Human Rights Watch released its annual report, 
upbraiding the Bush administration for undermining its credibility in 
promoting freedom abroad through its embrace of abusive interrogation 
tactics in the battle with terrorists. "There's no question that the 
issue of torture in particular has compromised the U.S. voice, and not 
only torture but a manifold list of other human rights issues," said the 
group's associate director, Carroll Bogert.

The broader question is the degree to which Bush's speech marked genuine 
change in policy rather than so much talk. In many parts of the 
government, democracy promotion seems still to take a back seat to other 
goals.

After the government in Uzbekistan massacred hundreds of protesters in 
Andijan, for instance, the Pentagon resisted any tough response to 
protect its military base there. Ultimately, even the restrained 
statements by the U.S. government alienated the autocratic Uzbek 
president, Islam Karimov, who threw out the U.S. military.

"They come into conflict every day," a senior official said of rival 
priorities inside the administration. "The question becomes the weight 
given to the intangible interest in freedom versus the tangible interest 
in having a base in Uzbekistan, for instance."

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity citing 
administration rules, called Bush's speech "a weapon in the hands of 
everyone in the administration who is pushing for a stronger and 
stronger democracy agenda."

"Anytime there's a question, should we say this or say that . . . 
someone can pull out a copy of the president's speech and say, 'Wait a 
second, may I quote from what the president said?' " the official added.

Outside the United States, the speech inspired many fighting for freedom 
but also raised expectations that are hard to fulfill. "All they do is 
talk right now," said Gulam Umarov. His father, Sanjar Umarov, head of 
the opposition Sunshine Coalition in Uzbekistan, has been in prison 
since October. "I don't know what actual moves they take. But they are 
talking, which is really good."

In other places, the United States has done more than talk. In 
Kyrgyzstan, the U.S. government funded pro-democracy groups and provided 
generators to print an opposition newspaper before its revolution. Edil 
Baisalov, director of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, can 
quote extensively from the Bush inaugural speech. "The Kyrgyz people are 
much, much better off today than they were a year ago, and I think the 
U.S. government should take pride in taking credit for that," he said. 
"And [it] should never apologize that it wants the people to be free."

In Belarus, another former Soviet republic ruled by an iron-fisted 
leader, Bush's words also stir hope. "We draw strength from these 
statements," said Vladimir Kolas, chairman of the Council of the 
Belarusian Intelligentsia opposing President Alexander Lukashenko. "We 
understand there are limits to what the U.S. can do. But we do need 
strong and decisive statements . . . that they will not recognize 
falsified election results."

The Bush administration has been willing to stay tough on Belarus and 
others it labeled "outposts of tyranny," such as Burma and Zimbabwe. 
Bush lobbied Asian leaders at a November summit in South Korea to bring 
Burma before the U.N. Security Council, and as a result the council had 
an unprecedented discussion last month. The United States also renewed 
economic sanctions adopted in 2003.

Opposition activists in Burma said they were grateful for U.S. efforts 
to highlight repression in their country. But despite these measures, 
little has changed, and some diplomats believe the situation has 
deteriorated. More than 1,100 political prisoners are behind bars, 
according to Amnesty International, and all regional offices of Aung San 
Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy remain shuttered.

In Zimbabwe, U.S. Ambassador Christopher W. Dell has been so outspoken 
about President Robert Mugabe's government that he has been threatened 
with expulsion. David Coltart, an opposition member of parliament, said 
Zimbabwe has been on the Bush administration's radar screen, even if not 
the president's. "George Bush is too preoccupied by Iraq to be 
personally engaged in the Zimbabwe crisis," he said. "But Colin Powell 
certainly was a friend of those struggling to bring democracy. It's too 
early to say whether Condoleezza Rice is focused on Zimbabwe."

Elsewhere, the U.S. hand is not seen as readily. In East Africa, 
newspapers are filled with columns asking why the Bush administration 
ignores their undemocratic leaders. After violence spilled into the 
streets of Uganda's capital when President Yoweri Museveni changed the 
constitution to run for a third term, Washington was silent. Museveni 
also jailed his opponent on what critics call trumped-up charges of 
treason and rape.

In Ethiopia, where 40 people were killed by government forces firing 
into crowds protesting fraudulent elections, Ethiopians complained that 
it took months for U.S. officials to speak out. "Does the Bush 
administration care about fighting terrorism for its citizens or does it 
care about the political situation in a Third World country like 
Ethiopia?" asked Tamrat G. Giorgis, managing editor of Fortune, one of 
Ethiopia's few independent newspapers. "I think Africans are asking that 
question, and we know the war on terror is more important."

When it comes to places such as China and Russia, the Bush 
administration prefers private friendly advice to ringing public 
denunciations. Sometimes it passes on both. Although U.S. officials have 
said they would like Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who took over Pakistan in a 
military coup, to give up his army post and govern as a civilian, 
Musharraf said last year that Bush has never raised the issue with him.

"I know presidents and diplomats are not dissidents and when they say 
they can achieve more in private talks, they may be sincere," said 
Lyudmila Alexeyeva of the Moscow Helsinki Group, a human rights 
organization under pressure from the Kremlin. "But I would still like to 
hear more. And maybe it will have an effect on our president."

Then there are Iran and North Korea, the two top enemies on Bush's list. 
The president appointed a special envoy on human rights in North Korea, 
but Abdollah Momeni of the Office for Fostering Unity, an Iranian 
student group, wants more constructive help. "If they only make noises 
about this, or if they think that through military action democracy can 
be achieved, they are moving on the wrong path," said Momeni, who is 
appealing a five-year prison sentence. "Military action against a 
country would dry up the democratic blossoms." But, he added, "more 
action and less talking is needed."

And there is Egypt, one of the most problematic places for the Bush 
democracy push. When President Hosni Mubarak agreed to let challengers 
run against him for the first time, a visiting Laura Bush praised the 
"wise and bold" move. But shortly after she left, Mubarak supporters 
orchestrated attacks on democracy demonstrators. The presidential 
election was manipulated, and a subsequent parliamentary election 
degenerated into violence and mass arrests.

The arrest of Nour, who won an unprecedented 7 percent against Mubarak, 
presented a singular challenge to Bush, who promised in his inaugural 
address to stand with "democratic reformers facing repression, prison or 
exile." The White House pronounced itself "deeply troubled" and demanded 
Mubarak "release Mr. Nour from detention."

Nour remains behind bars.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/24/AR2006012401901.html?nav=hcmodule
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