[Mb-civic] Sowing Afghan security - Robert I. Rotberg - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

  Sowing Afghan security

By Robert I. Rotberg  |  January 10, 2006  |   The Boston Globe

THERE IS A STRIKING ANTIDOTE to worsening security in Afghanistan, where 
suicide bombing and convoy ambushes now occur every day. Increasingly, 
these Taliban- and Al Qaeda-sponsored attacks are linked to opium and 
heroin trafficking. Afghanistan supplies 80 percent of Europe's heroin 
and is the largest grower of poppies in the world. Instead of legalizing 
poppy growing or attempting to eradicate the stubborn plants and destroy 
the livelihoods of impoverished farmers, why not pay the farmers to grow 
something else?

Afghans already grow wheat as their staple grain. Simply exhorting 
farmers to turn away from poppies to wheat, saffron, and pomegranates 
will not work. But providing serious, guaranteed, long-term incentives 
that will encourage farmers to grow wheat in preference to poppies could 
well produce addictions to wheat instead of heroin. Senior Afghans, 
meeting in December at Harvard University with American and British 
researchers, believe that wheat is the answer.

Americans spend about $3 billion a year attempting and failing to 
expunge the Afghan poppy crop. The conclusions of a Kennedy School of 
Government project on Afghanistan estimate that providing annual 
guarantees for purchases of wheat at triple the world price would cost 
less than eradication. To be credible for farmers, the guarantees would 
have to be established for five- and 10-year periods, not just annually. 
A marketing board could do the buying, and the problems of supply that 
would have to be watched carefully would concern smuggling wheat into 
the country rather than smuggling opium out. The results could also be 
eaten by hungry Afghans, or exported to neighboring Pakistan or 
Tajikistan. And Europe would benefit immensely from reduced supplies of 
heroin.

By thus ending the major battles to eradicate what is now the main 
peasant commodity, and the source of great profits for warlords and 
middlemen, subsidizing wheat would also contribute to peace. It might 
also help to undercut some of the appeal of the Taliban. Terrorism now 
connected with narco-trafficking would also cease, thus improving 
overall national security.

If the scourge of poppy growing can be reduced and then eliminated, 
Afghanistan might stand a chance to prosper and develop well. Otherwise, 
the landlocked nation's future will be precarious, and the new 
government will continue to be a collection of its sections, with little 
unity.

Making headway on poppies and drugs would provide the central government 
of Afghanistan with a sense of common purpose that could draw the 
proto-nation together. Today the central government has only limited 
visibility and legitimacy beyond Kabul, the capital. A handle on the 
poppy problem would also give Kabul an edge over regional power brokers. 
Washington and Brussels should use their collective financial muscle to 
assist President Hamid Karzai's government and the new national 
parliament in this way, and not by attacking farmers trying to be 
productive by any means that they know how.

To accomplish these and other worthy objectives, Afghanistan needs to be 
well governed. The key governance deliverable is security. Second is a 
much enhanced rule of law. A climate of impunity for powerful people now 
prevails, and must be altered. The state must not continue to be 
complicit in the abuse of ordinary civilians. Washington and Brussels 
must do more to help the Karzai government to develop its legal 
apparatuses and codes. Even when the police make arrests, their 
investigations are weak, and the legal system plays favorites. There are 
few assurances of predictability or integrity, with many local warlords 
imposing their own dictates on civil and criminal disputes. The country 
also requires an ability to recognize and protect individual rights. 
Battling harder against corruption is critical, also, although this is a 
task largely for the Karzai government and not for outsiders.

These obstacles impede Afghanistan's emergence from conflict and chaos. 
With skillful internal leadership and outside assistance, however, these 
barriers can be overcome. But the time horizon is five years, not months 
or single years. The role of foreign donors will remain critical for 
that period, and beyond. More coordination among those donors will be 
essential, but Afghanistan must provide the priorities more than it now 
does.

State building in Afghanistan is not an enduring effort. But if 
drug-related and judicial reforms happen, and if Afghan and NATO forces 
can reduce insecurity, then -- and only then -- Afghanistan will emerge 
as a strong ally and an effective developing nation.

Robert I. Rotberg is director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict at 
the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and president of 
the World Peace Foundation. 


http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/01/10/sowing_afghan_security/
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