[Mb-civic] Democrats Contour November Strategy - Washington Post

[William Swiggard]

Democrats Contour November Strategy
Meeting of DNC Focuses on Way To Unseat GOP

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, April 23, 2006; A04

NEW ORLEANS, April 22 -- Democratic Party officials continue to assemble 
the pieces for their midterm election strategy, but questions about the 
party's overall message, differences on Iraq, reservations about their 
leaders, and debates about campaign tactics contribute to concerns that 
they may not be positioned to take advantage of the most favorable 
political climate since President Bush was elected.

The Democrats came to New Orleans this week to highlight what they want 
the midterm elections to be about: a referendum on Bush's leadership and 
competence. Just as Iraq symbolizes Americans' disenchantment with 
Bush's foreign policy, New Orleans stands as a poignant reminder of the 
breakdown of government after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. 
Democrats intend to use that imagery as a partisan weapon between now 
and November to argue that Bush has failed the American people on 
multiple fronts.

"Our current Republican government will be judged by how they treated 
Americans of the Gulf Coast, and how it has treated, or mistreated, our 
American community," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean 
said in his speech to the committee on Saturday. "The Republicans have 
cut and run when it comes to rebuilding the Gulf Coast, and we will not 
do that."

On that there is widespread agreement, but many Democrats fear it will 
not be enough to win back control of the House or Senate or both in 
November. "We have to do two things," said Bobby Kahn, the Georgia 
Democratic Party chairman. "One, disqualify the Republicans, and two, 
provide an alternative. The first part, they've done for us, and the 
second part, we need to do."

The New Orleans meeting was infused with optimism. Democrats believe the 
elements that were crucial to Republican successes in 2002 and 2004 -- 
public fears about terrorism and positive perceptions of Bush's 
leadership capacities -- no longer have the potency to turn close 
elections in the GOP's direction. Overpowering those traditional 
Republican assets, they believe, is growing sentiment for a change in 
direction after six years of Republican dominance.

"In 2006, the veil of competency that they pretended to have, the 
illusion of security they ran on, is no longer there," said Robert 
Zimmerman, Democratic national committeeman from New York. "This is an 
election where the message is 'stand and deliver,' and they've not been 
able to stand and deliver."

But as powerful as that sentiment for change may be across the country, 
many Democrats see it as only one component of a winning campaign 
strategy. In their estimation, the message "Had enough?" is not enough 
to guarantee the kind of success in November that they believe is possible.

"I don't think we can coast through this election year by pointing out 
the shortcomings, which are multiple and gargantuan, of the Bush 
administration," said former DNC chairman Donald L. Fowler. "I don't 
think we can do that."

Fowler said the party needs policies on health care, tax reform, ethics 
and especially Iraq. In his speech Saturday, Dean sought to outline the 
elements of a Democratic message, adapted from what congressional 
Democrats have been assembling in recent months.

The proposals include raising the minimum wage, ensuring tax fairness 
for the middle class, rewriting the Medicare prescription drug plan, 
enacting recommendations from the commission that investigated the 
attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, overhauling ethics and lobbying rules, and 
pushing the Iraqis to take greater responsibility for defeating the 
insurgency.

But Dean's litany falls short of what other Democrats see as a 
comprehensive alternative to Republican governance, and while many of 
them believe there is still time to produce something for public 
consumption before the November election, there is not overwhelming 
confidence that the party can do it. On Iraq, there is a sharp divide 
over whether to embrace or eschew timetables for withdrawing troops.

Democrats also remain haunted by the success of the Bush team to produce 
victories against the odds in recent elections. The GOP's skills at 
identifying and mobilizing voters in 2002 and 2004 have prompted major 
reassessments inside the Democratic family about how to respond, with 
splits between Dean's DNC and Washington-based Democratic strategists 
and congressional leaders over how to allocate resources.

Dean has emphasized the need to appeal to the grass roots and to rebuild 
state parties in blue and red states. To that end, he has created what 
he calls the 50-state project and has deployed 175 DNC-funded organizers 
nationwide. Democratic state chairmen give the program rave reviews, not 
least because the DNC continues to hand out checks to help underwrite 
their operations. But some Democrats in Washington fear the strategy is 
financing operations in states the Democrats cannot win in 2008, and 
that that could shortchange some targeted races in 2006. These 
differences permeate attitudes about Dean's stewardship.

For all the problems Bush and has team have encountered in the past 15 
months, Democratic strategists hold the Bush operation in high regard 
when it comes to campaign tactics. "The Republicans are good at 
acquiring power," strategist Mike Stratton said. "They're even better at 
maintaining power. I think they are going to rally up here, particularly 
financially, and they'll be willing to throw anything in, including the 
kitchen sink, to win these elections. We just can't take this wind at 
our backs for granted."

Others say the Republicans have exploited the weaknesses of Democratic 
candidates. Former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, for example, blamed the 
Democrats for being soft in the face of aggressive GOP campaign tactics. 
"We have not demonstrated the mental toughness up to this point -- and 
smarts," he said.

Still, some party leaders believe Republican advantages in running 
campaigns has begun to erode with Bush's declining poll numbers. In 
2002, for example, Georgia was at ground zero in demonstrating the power 
of GOP campaign techniques, as an unexpected surge of Republican voters 
defeated both then-Sen. Max Cleland and then-Gov. Roy Barnes. In 2004, 
the Republican turnout operation proved superior once again in many 
battlegrounds.

Now Kahn sees hope for Democrats. In past elections, the appeal of Bush 
as messenger helped motivate grass-roots Republicans, and party 
mechanics did the rest to get them to the polls. "They had the ultimate 
messenger," he said. "Well, I don't think that works right now -- not 
even in Georgia. The national meltdown has found its way to Georgia. Now 
we have to pick up the ball and run with it."

But if Bush's strength has been diminished, the Democrats have no 
comparable leader to galvanize the party for the midterm elections. The 
burden this year falls heaviest on Dean, Senate Minority Leader Harry 
Reid (Nev.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), but all 
three have detractors.

Many Democrats say that in a midterm election, a singular party leader 
is not crucial, that individual candidates across the country can carry 
the party's message. But Fowler pointed to the Republican success in 
1994, when the GOP captured the House and Senate in a year when the 
voters turned against then-President Bill Clinton, to underscore one 
distinction with the Democrats this year.

"The difference between now and '94 is we don't have a Newt Gingrich. 
It's just that simple," he said in reference to the year Republicans 
captured control of Congress. "But if we find ourselves a message, we 
could do [to Republicans] almost what they did to us in '94."

Elaine Kamarck, a longtime party strategist, said Democrats should have 
a big year this year regardless of whether their campaigns are 
letter-perfect. "I think they are better still than we are in campaign 
politics," she said in reference to Republicans. "But I think that when 
you've been an incumbent for so long, reality trumps politics. By this 
time, every mess in the world or here is their mess, without anybody's 
question, and I don't think you can get out of that with politics."

For now, that remains the Democrats' default strategy for November.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/22/AR2006042201128.html?referrer=email
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