[Mb-civic] Afghanistan: The Long Road Ahead - Richard Holbrooke - Washington Post Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

Afghanistan: The Long Road Ahead
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By Richard Holbrooke
The Washington Post
Sunday, April 2, 2006; B07

KABUL, Afghanistan -- In a region of Pakistan almost unknown to most 
Americans, a sort of failed ministate offering sanctuary to our greatest 
enemies has arisen. It is a smaller version of what Afghanistan was 
before Sept. 11, 2001, and it poses a direct threat to vital American 
national security interests.

Waziristan and North-West Frontier Province, where Osama bin Laden and 
the Taliban leader Mullah Omar are hiding, have become a major sanctuary 
in which the Taliban and al-Qaeda train, recruit, rest and prepare for 
the next attacks on U.S., NATO and Afghan forces inside Afghanistan. The 
most recent, on March 29, resulted in the deaths of one American and one 
Canadian soldier. More attacks must be expected.

For the United States, the dilemma is huge. There is no chance that the 
training of the Afghan army and police will produce a force able to 
defend itself as long as the Taliban has sanctuary in Pakistan. Other 
than "hot pursuit," which is already permitted, the United States cannot 
invade Waziristan; such an operation would have little chance of success 
and would create an enormous crisis in U.S. relations with Pakistan. 
Leave Afghanistan, and the Taliban will return, along with bin Laden and 
al-Qaeda. The only viable choice is to stay, in order to deny most of 
the country to the enemy. That means an indefinite U.S. and NATO 
military presence in Afghanistan. No U.S.official will say it publicly, 
but the conclusion is clear: We will be in Afghanistan for a very long 
time, much longer than we will remain in Iraq.

The Afghans have a simple solution to the sanctuary problem: Washington 
should tell Pakistan's president, Pervez Musharraf, that he must clean 
out the border areas -- or else. The Pakistanis have an equally simple 
response: They are doing the best they can in a historically lawless 
tribal area and, in cooperation with the Americans, have already 
arrested or killed hundreds of terrorists. The Afghans, who deeply 
distrust Musharraf, do not believe this; while grateful to the United 
States for freeing them from the hated Taliban, they think Washington is 
too easy on Pakistan, in part to make up for Pakistan's anger at the 
recent nuclear deal with India.

The biggest program of Washington and the European Union is the drug 
eradication effort. Almost 90 percent of the world's heroin comes from 
Afghanistan. Official U.S. and U.N. reports claim that last year's 
programs reduced poppy production by 4 percent -- at a cost of close to 
$1 billion. That means the United States spent more than the entire 
national budget of Afghanistan to accomplish essentially nothing! Yet 
the failed drug policy is continuing without significant change.

If the drug program is the biggest failure, American-inspired efforts to 
give the women of Afghanistan a chance for a better life have the 
greatest potential. First lady Laura Bush deserves credit for making 
this a signature issue. Insisting that more than 25 percent of the seats 
in the National Assembly be reserved for women was risky but inspired. I 
met with 10 female legislators; they were more animated and more excited 
about their country than any of the men. If they form a women's caucus, 
a process that has started with encouragement from the National 
Democratic Institute for International Affairs, they will become a 
powerful force for progress.

But let no one confuse progress for women at the higher levels (there is 
even one female provincial governor) with a significant change for the 
average girl or woman. Each time Afghanistan tried to advance the status 
of women, the men reacted with a strong backlash. They will do so again. 
Progress is distant and virtually meaningless to rural women. That 
striking symbol of Afghanistan, the head-to-toe covering of women that 
is known as the burqa, remains widely used everywhere. One vivacious 
legislator on the provincial council in Herat told me that while she did 
not like the burqa, she dared not let her "beautiful" 15-year-old 
daughter out without it. "The burqa," she said, "is my weapon." And 
self-immolation, forced on women by their families if they violate 
strict codes of conduct, is actually on the rise.

Herat, the only major city in the west, highlights the complexities of 
Afghanistan. Less than 100 miles from the Iranian border, it is enjoying 
an economic boom and almost no Taliban threat. But the economy is fueled 
in large part by Iran, which is visibly gaining economic and political 
influence in the region. So here is the ultimate irony of a situation 
filled with irony: Our "strategic ally" (in President Bush's phrase) in 
Pakistan is giving sanctuary to the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the east, 
while an "axis of evil" country is playing a stabilizing role in the 
west. In fact, of course, Iran is pursuing the same long-term strategic 
goal there as it does everywhere: to create a Shiite region stretching 
from Lebanon as far east as possible. Iran's growing strength in Herat 
can only heighten Tehran's sense that events are going its way these days.

With so much at stake, it is surprising that the administration asked 
for a pittance (about $40 million) for Afghan reconstruction in its 
recent supplemental, after the State Department and the U.S. Embassy 
requested about 10 times as much. Still worse, Congress compounded the 
lowered funding request by cutting the appropriation to $4 million.

Let us hope that these cuts were simply an aberration caused by 
Hurricane Katrina and bureaucratic confusion. Afghanistan will be 
difficult, and we must do a much better job on the ground. There is 
always a risk that our presence will, over time, create an Iraq-like 
anti-American xenophobia (in a country with a famously xenophobic 
history). But Afghanistan is not Iraq. Denying the country to our 
enemies is not a long-term strategy, but it is essential in the current 
phase of history, especially as Iraq stumbles toward an increasingly 
bleak future.

Richard Holbrooke, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, 
writes a monthly column for The Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/31/AR2006033101705.html
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