[Mb-civic] A fit of (oil) peak - Chip Giller and David Roberts - Boston Globe

[William Swiggard]

A fit of (oil) peak

By Chip Giller and David Roberts  |  September 1, 2005

IT'S THE END of the world as we know it, and we feel fine.

Let us explain.

The last few months have seen a surge of stories on so-called ''peak 
oil." That's the moment when we're pulling as much oil out of the ground 
as we'll ever be able to pump. Supply hits its peak and begins an 
inexorable decline, regardless of demand. Hurricane Katrina has shown 
what kind of damage short-term supply disruptions can do; peak oil 
represents long-term and permanent supply disruption.

But peak oil is not a matter of economics or politics. It's cold, hard 
geology.

Nobody knows for sure when the peak will occur. Estimates range from a 
few years ago to 50 years hence. But expert consensus is closing in on 
the next five to 15 years.

This isn't a Y2K bug situation; the exact moment we hit the peak isn't 
that important. What really matters is how we handle the descent. The 
difficulty it poses is incredibly complex but simply stated: Our entire 
economy hinges on the availability of cheap oil.

Think about food and transport. Our agricultural system depends on 
petroleum-based fertilizers and petro-fuel to haul the resulting food 
over vast distances. And oil powers our transportation system -- not 
just personal vehicles, but city buses, long-haul trucks, airplanes, and 
ocean freighters.

Right now, the price of a barrel of oil is hovering around $70. But 
what's going to happen when it hits $80? $100? $200? Opinions are 
sharply divided.

On one side, the Chicken Little Brigade says the end of cheap oil will 
cause an abrupt worldwide economic crash, casting civilization into 
violence and turmoil.The lucky ones might escape with a modest agrarian 
life, carving tools by candlelight and wondering what would have 
happened on the next season of ''Desperate Housewives."

On the other side, the Ostrich Brigade says the free market will handle 
the transition smoothly. No need to fret. Now return to your SUV and 
back away slowly.

Both perspectives are flawed. The coming disruptions are not inevitably 
catastrophic, so we can't just sit back and await the Apocalypse. But 
the world's influence-ridden energy markets are anything but ''free," so 
we can't just sit back and wait for things to work themselves out 
either. The only question is whether we participate actively or passively.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/09/01/a_fit_of_oil_peak/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://www.islandlists.com/pipermail/mb-civic/attachments/20050901/46920fc8/attachment.htm