[Mb-civic] FW: Iran's "Second Islamic Revolution"

[villasudjuan]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Elahe golsorkhi <egolsorkhi at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2005 04:54:40 -0700 (PDT)
To: REZA GOLSORKHI <villasudjuan at wanadoo.fr>
Subject: Fwd: Iran's "Second Islamic Revolution"



--- Samii Shahla <shahla at thesamiis.com> wrote:

> From: Samii Shahla <shahla at thesamiis.com>
> Subject: Iran's "Second Islamic Revolution"
> Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 12:07:12 -0400
> 
> 
> 
> Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > Should We Care About Iran's New President?
> >
> > June 28, 2005
> > The Chicago Tribune
> > Marvin Zonis
> >
> > Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's rise to the presidency of
> Iran has been  
> > meteoric. Only two years ago he was appointed
> governor of a remote
> > Iranian province and then mayor of Tehran, Iran's
> capital.
> >
> > Ahmadinejad, 49, has been called everything from
> an  
> > ultraconservative to a radical conservative to a
> fascist. In the  
> > Iranian political spectrum, that is a very narrow
> range of  
> > political orientation. What can the Iranian people
> and the West  
> > expect from him?
> >
> > 1. Whatever he is labeled, Ahmadinejad is an
> ascetic. He is one of
> > those Iranians who seek spiritual purification
> through austerity
> > and self-denial. He will seek to purge Iran of
> "corruption," which
> > means not only financial chicanery but also a
> return to a rigid
> > moral code--the elimination of Westernization and
> all of its  
> > accoutrements--sexuality of any kind, the mixing
> of the sexes,  
> > music and the like. (A sign of what's to come:
> During his term as
> > mayor of Tehran, he introduced separate elevators
> for men and women
> > in all municipal buildings.)
> >
> > 2. He clearly won votes from the disaffected and
> the  
> > disenfranchised of Iran. Unemployment is
> officially 10 percent but
> > a more realistic bet would be at least 20 percent.
> Inflation is  
> > officially 16 percent per year and also could,
> more realistically,
> > be doubled. Ahmadinejad will respond with greater
> redistributive  
> > economic policies. His tenure as mayor was a time
> of great urban  
> > largesse. Watch him to increase subsidies for food
> and housing and  
> > to state industries. Privatization will be
> finished. Iran will move
> > even further away from any elements of a market
> economy, spelling
> > longterm economic doom.
> >
> > 3. Whatever else he may be, he is not a cleric,
> and in many ways,
> > his election represents a backlash against the
> clerics who have 
> > increasingly monopolized power and waxed rich
> through their control
> > of power. Ahmadinejad is certainly committed to an
> Islamic state  
> > but he will seek to purge the clergy of
> corruption.
> >
> > 4. A major winner in the election were the
> principle organs of
> > state repression--the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
> Corps and the  
> > Basij Militia, the mobilization of volunteers to
> enforce "Islamic 
> > morality." Ahmadinejad spent the years of the
> Iran-Iraq war in the
> > corps as a military engineer and served on the
> front with great 
> > bravery. He then was active in the Basij and was
> noted for his  
> > vigor in their campaign against alcohol. (He was
> one of the  
> > students involved in planning of the 1979 seizure
> of the U.S.  
> > Embassy.)
> >
> > 5. The major losers in the election were Iran's
> upper classes, the
> > more Westernized elements of Iranian society and
> the "reformists."
> > They will certainly be subject to repression and
> harsh "Islamic  
> > morality."
> >
> > 6. During the presidential campaign, Ahmadinejad
> criticized Iran's
> > negotiators for making too many concessions to the
> Europeans  
> > regarding Iran's nuclear-development program.
> European diplomacy
> > now is not likely to slow that program.
> Ahmadinejad is a fervent
> > Iranian nationalist. Like the vast majority of
> Iranians, he sees
> > Iran as entitled to mastery of the full nuclear
> fuel cycle, if not
> > the actual possession of nuclear weapons.
> >
> > 7. He has also made it clear that he will not
> restore relations
> > with the United States. No chance exists for a
> diplomatic  
> > breakthrough.
> >
> > 8. Ahmadinejad will seek friends wherever he can
> find them. The  
> > most likely bet at the moment is China, with whom
> he will  
> > strengthen economic ties through energy deals--oil
> and natural gas. 
> > Iran has already signed an $[80] billion natural
> gas deal. That is
> > likely to be only the beginning.
> >
> > 9. The power of U.S. neocons has been
> strengthened. The staffs of
> > such think tanks as American Enterprise Institute
> and the Heritage 
> > Foundation have been energized in their Iran
> bashing. Vice  
> > President Dick Cheney is, reportedly, satisfied
> that his analysis
> > was correct: Iran was a hopeless case and would
> never reach a  
> > satisfactory nuclear agreement with the Europeans.
> Those arguing  
> > for a military solution to the problem of Iran's
> nuclear program  
> > see themselves as vindicated.
> >
> > 10. The Iran-U.S. crisis will not be long in
> coming. Whether that
> > will result in any U.S. military action against
> Iran's nuclear  
> > program will depend on the status of the war in
> Iraq. If the  
> > insurgency were to be controlled--which is not now
> the case--the  
> > chances of U.S. military action in Iran would be
> vastly enhanced, 
> > leading to another debacle for U.S. foreign
> policy. In the interim,
> > oil prices, bolstered by fears of political
> instability and  
> > conflict in the Persian Gulf, will continue their
> relentless rise.
> >
> > Iran hardliners call for social freedoms clampdown
> > Wed Jun 29, 2005 4:19 PM BST
> >
> > By Parisa Hafezi
> >
> > TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's ultra-conservative
> President-elect  
> > Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday faced calls from
> hardline  
> > supporters to clamp down on social freedoms
> allowed under the
> > country's outgoing reformist president.
> >
> > "Islamic and revolutionary culture have been
> neglected in the past
> > years," the official IRNA news agency quoted
> hardline lawmaker
> > Mohammad Taqi Rahbar as saying.
> >
> > "Even if women remove the small handkerchiefs they
> wear instead of  
> > a proper veil, nobody says anything," he said
> adding that mixing of
> > young men and women in public also contravened the
> values of an  
> > Islamic society.
> >
> > Ahmadinejad's victory was sealed in part thanks to
> the support of  
> > ultra-conservative clerics and organisations such
> as the Basij  
> > religious militia which enforces the Islamic
> state's strict moral
> > codes.
> >
> > But analysts said Ahmadinejad would have to tread
> carefully in  
> > trying to honour his hardcore backers' beliefs
> without risking  
> > unrest if hard-won freedoms enjoyed under outgoing
> reformist  
> > President Mohammad Khatami are curtailed.
> >
> > "Hardliners expect him (Ahmadinejad) to tighten
> social freedoms,"
> > said sociologist Mohammad Razeghi. "Ahmadinejad
> faces a tough choice."
> >
> > Few analysts believe Ahmadinejad would reverse the
> more lax  
> > enforcement of Islamic codes that now allow women
> to wear make-up  
> > and young couples to fraternise in public without
> fear of arrest.
> >
> > "Putting too much pressure on people, might cause
> a backlash," said
> > Saeed Tahmouresi, a political science teacher at
> TehranUniversity.
> >
> > Mehdi Kalhor, widely tipped by newspapers to
> become Ahmadinejad's
> > culture minister, tried to present an image of
> moderation and  
> > scotch fears of a crackdown on social freedoms.
> >
> > "Ahmadinejad's efforts are focused on preventing
> the state from  
> > interfering in people's private space," Kalhor was
> quoted by  
> > newspapers as saying.
> >
> > "We are against suppression and censorship. People
> resist force."
> >
> > But Ahmadinejad's spokesman told Reuters Kalhor's
> view did not  
> > represent the president-elect's cultural policy.
> >
> > Kalhor's comments were also strongly criticised by
> some hardline  
> > lawmakers.
> >
> > "Such remarks might cause doubts among
> Ahmadinejad's supporters,"
> > IRNA quoted hardline MP Mehdi Tabatabai as saying.
> >
> > "Iran is an Islamic country, where Islamic values
> should be  
> > respected."
> >
> >
> >
> >
> 
> 



        
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